US Politics

Calling it 2: Premature Electoral Prediction

Even he's surprised that he's the frontrunner

Last time we did “Calling it” we claimed that Newt was done for and Romney had clinched the nomination. Well it seems while we were covering our local debate between the Republicans and Democrats, Santorum has surged across the States. Jokes about Santorum’s name aside, the race for the GOP nomination has been pretty disappointing for everyone involved. The turn outs at these primaries have been considerably lower than previous years, and no candiate has the Republicans really fired up. Santorum himself is no viable candidate for office: while he may appeal to the GOP’s Christian base as an alternative to Romney, his social politics is just too restrictive and outdated for him to lead the entire nation.

This Republican pessimism has been dominating the nation’s media and liberals in particular have pounced on it. Economist Paul Krugman wrote a scathing New York Times Column about the GOP’s dismal prospects. In the column he argues that Republican base demands a level of conservatism from the candidates that the general public is not interested in, saying that “the party suffers from “severe” conservatism in the worst way. And the malady may take many years to cure.”

It would seem the Republican party has lost direction. It’s unable to find an inspiring candidate or resinate with the American people en large, beyond their core base. But looking forward to November their are other factors in play. The economy is growing again up to 2.3% from 1.6% last year and Obama has held approve rating steady around 50%.

These factors have been analyzed by economists Patrick Hummel and David Rothschild working for Yahoo! Labs. They have developed an algorithm from analyzing the past 10 presidential elections which can predict the outcome of a state election with 88% accuracy. When given the economic and political factors for the upcoming election, Hummel and Rothschild’s model predicted that Obama would prevail over a Republic challenger with 303 electoral votes to 235.

That’s quite the prediction, but don’t place your bets yet. There is plenty of time until November and things could change. But for now it seems like Obama has the upper hand and the Republican candidates don’t know how to proceed. Perhaps their own algorithms have told them to save their energy for later.

Pub Coverage

Long Overdue Coverage: The Columbia Libertarian Blog

why are you looking at this?

If only political ideologies could be graphed and modeled on a 2D plot

For the past week The Cub Pub has been covering the CPU  debate between the Columbia Democrats and Republicans. However, we’ve been forgoing one political group on campus: CUL, Columbia Libertarians. Last week they had an event as well:  The Young Americans for Liberty’s Civil Liberties College Tour. Several speakers attended such as Bruce Fein, Glenn Greenwald, Jacob Hornberger and Jack Hunter. The event had a huge turn out: around 180 people came to listen to the panel and it’s a shame that The Cub Pub did not have reporters to cover it. This absolutely wil be rectified for future political events on campus, CUL sponsored or otherwise. You can read up about the speakers and the event itself on the Columbia Libertarians blog here.

Speaking of the CUL blog, it has to be the most regularly updated and supported political blogs on campus, besides The Cub Pub of course. This is somewhat unexpected because CU Libertarians are a smaller group on campus than the College Dems and Repubs. The Libertarians’ have published four articles since the start of the semester. That may not seem like much but in comparison the post recent articles on both the Democrats’ and Republicans’ sites are still on SOPA/PIPA.

But there is a larger issue. If you read though all these blogs you’ll find that there’s hardly a single comment on any post. This is a problem. There’s no way to incite meaningful political conversation on campus if so few people are writing it and discussing it. Journals, reviews, and publications are nice but they they lack an online presence where real discussion can take shape. That’s the domain of blogs and that’s why the political blogs on campus are so important. The Cub Pub encourages all political groups to keep their blogs updated, keep the content fresh and timely, keep the conversation going. We have our own work cut out for us when it comes to creating discussion but in this case we are fortunate that it’s a tide that raises all ships.

Debate Coverage

CTV Debate Coverage!

Last Tuesday the Columbia Political Union held a debate on affirmative action between the College Republicans and Democrats. It was an impressive display from both sides, but if you missed out, don’t fret! We have minute by minute live blog coverage right here. Also, thanks to our friends at CTV we were able to film the debate for your viewing/reviewing pleasure. Want to get a better feel of what went down. or want to relive some juicy moments? Well, we have the closing statements right here, and embedded below we have CTV’s own news piece on the event. Enjoy!